Thunder roll! Photovoltaic, is there any drama this year?

This afternoon, the market suddenly plunged, and investors looked confused.

On the one hand, the rise in weights such as banks has formed a siphon effect on the market, and other varieties have declined accordingly

On the other hand, the sharp decline in the photovoltaic new energy circuit directly depressed the market sentiment into a freezing point. The Shenwan Photovoltaic Equipment Index fell 5.17%, and several individual stocks fell sharply. Hongxiang Shares fell 15.38%, and Jing'ao Technology and Deye Shares fell to the limit. Industry leaders such as Dongfang Risheng, Jingke Energy, Sunshine Power, and Longji Green Energy all fell by more than 5%.

On the news, according to overseas media reports, the European Commission is drafting a proposal for "self supply of clean energy", which will be considered on Thursday local time (Beijing time tonight). The proposal mainly includes two related aspects. First, it requires that 85% of the components used in European wind farms, 60% of heat pumps, 85% of photovoltaic cells, and 85% of electrolytic cells must be produced in continental Europe; The second is to restrict the import of green technology products in China by lowering the level of bidders for public contracts.

The main purpose of the EU's introduction of this plan is to reduce its dependence on China's New Year field. This fully demonstrates that the EU has learned the lesson from excessive dependence on Russian energy during the Russian-Uzbekistan War.

Due to the impact of this news, the photovoltaic sector is directly struggling with difficulties, and there has been a significant scramble for funds.

Why does the EU's introduction of this plan have such a significant impact on photovoltaic?

The main reason is that the EU has formed a high dependence on China's new energy industry chain, especially in the photovoltaic field. According to data, the global market share of silicon materials, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in China's photovoltaic industry chain is above 80% - 90%; The expected market share of Chinese components and inverters in the European region is about 80-90% and 60-70% respectively; In 2022, Europe imported 86.6GW of components from China, accounting for 46% of China's component exports.

Therefore, as soon as the news came out, the photovoltaic sector plummeted.

According to data from China Photovoltaic Association, in 2022, the development profile of various links in China's photovoltaic manufacturing sector is as follows:

The output of polysilicon was 827000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 63.4%; The output of silicon wafers was 357GW, with a year-on-year increase of 57.5%;

The output of battery cells was 318GW, with a year-on-year increase of 60.7%; Component production was 288.7GW, a year-on-year increase of 58.8%

It is worth noting that since the Spring Festival this year, it has been found that the new energy sector as a whole is weaker than the market, and the fundamental reason for this round of weakness is the concern about new energy demand, which is not domestic, but overseas.

Previously, there were still optimistic expectations for photovoltaic industry, mainly due to the acceleration of exports in the photovoltaic field this year. According to customs data, in 2022, the total export of photovoltaic products (silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules) exceeded US $512 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 80.3%. The export of photovoltaic modules exceeded 153 GW, with a year-on-year increase of 55.8%, effectively supporting the growth of domestic and foreign photovoltaic markets and global new energy demand. From the perspective of regional distribution of exports, Europe will still be the most important export market in 2022, accounting for about 46% of total exports, and the proportion will continue to increase.

Due to the weaker than expected overseas economic recovery, coupled with restrictions from European and American policies, the uncertainty of overseas demand has increased significantly, which is the essence of this round of new energy decline. Today's event is just an accelerator.

For this year's photovoltaic industry, if export sales are hindered, the overall installed capacity of domestic demand may accelerate. The specific judgment should be made based on the monthly published installation data.